 As George finally lurches off to his ranch in Texas I fear there is little that we will miss about him other than his ability to excruciatingly contort the English language. For memory’s sake may I quote a couple of his most notable verbal aberrations. The one I find most surreal and at least applies to a broader audience than usual was “I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully” – he has obviously never met an angry haddock – Michigan September 2000. The other is about education with the following illustrative statement - “Rarely is the question asked: is our children learning?” South Carolina September 2000. Oh dear – good bye George.
The contrast with the suave and urbane oratory of his successor is thus all the more dramatic, however, as with everything that is new and fresh, the sheen of the fresh will wear off after a few months and the natural flaws (that we all have) will be highlighted even with the talented Mr Obama. The measure of this change will of course be through the mimicking skills of Rory Bremner.
As I have mentioned before, this pristine President is arriving with all the hopes and aspirations of, not just the American voters, but also the rest of the world resting on his shoulders. In that regard, he is of course destined not to be able to fulfil these expectations.
So where does he start? His action list I suspect could go on for pages and it will be a measure of his management skills to see how he is going to prioritise his actions. He will need to carefully select his targets to address but perhaps I can focus on a few.
The economy – he has already stated that this is his key priority and quite rightly so, as it is going to take a huge effort to effect any meaningful change especially by the time of the mid-term elections which are now less than two years away. His new “New Deal” package for recovery will no doubt be eye watering in its cost and, when added to the already committed levels of expenditure from the previous administration and the Treasury issuance, is going to be on the scale of wallpaper. It’s going to be a big bet – a bet that it will work to help shorten the lowest part of the cycle, and a bet that enough people will have confidence in the US, its currency, its economy, its debt and of course its President.
Geo-politics. The world is desperate for an intelligent statesman to help us through the global political fissures. From Gaza to Cuba, from Kiev to Kabul, from Korea to Columbia, the list seems almost legion. Additionally you can also be assured that there will be another “X” factor that will come out of nowhere to shock us all. Possibly, though, the most important relationship that he should be addressing is that of the USA and China. Although being at opposite ends of the political spectrum, they are in fact in a symbiotic relationship with one another. China has realised the vital importance of US consumer demand for its goods and any slowdown has been directly translated into factory closures and job losses. Equally the US is also reliant on what the Chinese might or might not do with their reserves of over $1.8 trillion.
The success of this relationship may just be at the core of trying to manage our way out of the developing global recession.There is an air surrounding this inauguration of fond nostalgia harking back to the Kennedy administration and feeling of a new era or a return to Camelot. This wave of optimism will unfortunately only be transitory, but I only hope and pray it doesn’t end up with the same dreadful outcome.
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Back in the UK the phoney recession has given way to the vengeance of the real recession, with the number of job losses and business closures grabbing the headlines every day. Sadly some of the job creation news I have found equally depressing with most seeming to be around the expansion of supermarkets – presumably a new wave of shelf stackers are to be recruited? This has all the strength of long term service as grave digging services during the Plague. Not my idea of a sustainable economic development.
And finally..........perhaps we should actually go with the flow of the recessionary pressure and follow the guidance of the “Idler”website and magazine. It has been their direction that we should
“Do Less in 2009”
“The way to thrive in 2009 is simply to join the Idler’s Do Less Campaign. It’s simple: you just do less. That means less shopping, less driving, less holidaying, less working, less spending. And more sitting around at home, more reading, chatting and drinking. Doing less is cheap and easy and it’s kind to the environment. The era which privileged the busy high achiever is coming to an end. That system has been found wanting, and there is a new world out there, a world of more fun, more freedom, more time for reflection and contemplation, community and cooking, making and mending.” Well that would upset the government’s plans for recovery – but it does have its appeal. Have a good week,
Justin
Justin A. Urquhart Stewart
Director
Seven Investment Management Limited
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